I have a real problem with polls both in that I don't believe in them and, yet, I can't quit looking at them.
The latest Gallup national GOP primary tracking poll shows Mitt Romney out in front at 31%, Newt Gingrich in the #2 spot with 16%, Rick Santorum with 15%, Ron Paul with 13%, Rick Perry with 6%, and Jon Huntsman with 2%. In yesterday's edition, Romney was leading Gingrich 30%-18%. The current poll surveyed about 1,200 likely GOP primary voters from January 6-10.
However, that lead isn't a particularly strong one, in my opinion, considering it is just slightly better than Romney has been polling forever and, in addition, didn't Mittens start running for President back in the '50s or so?
I think what is most significant is that most of the Romney supporters are just that, Romney supporters. Almost all of the other candidates voters (maybe with the exception of a few of the Mormon supporters of Huntsman, not sure how that issue is going to play out yet) are Not-Romneys. as the others drop out I don't see Romney gaining much since those voters are more likely to "settle for" one of his opponents.
I think Obama is going to trounce the Repug nominee anyway, but this may be an interesting season.
Some predictions?
Romney gets the nomination, and Obama beats the stuffing out of the Romney/Christie ticket. Still curious about the idea floating out there of Hillary as the VP with Biden going to Secretary of State. That would make an interesting race.
Even with Christie the TPers can't get firmly behind Romney and spend their efforts instead focusing on Congressional races, which could cause issues. Then again, if the Dems can do some effective campaigning the Tea Party stance on most issues is ludicrous so there is some hay to be made there.
Rick Perry returns to Texas after a sound defeat in SC and is challenged and beaten in the next Gubernatorial election (with an emphasis on the Goober part).
Ron Paul doesn't actually run as a third party candidate, although that would certainly spice things up a lot.
Donald Trump still looks like a pompous ass even as he doesn't run as a third party candidate.
Sarah Palin eventually endorses a candidate after the bandwagon is extremely clear.
The New Orleans Saints win the Superbowl and talk starts about Brees running for Louisiana Governor when he eventually retires and beating that peculiar Bobby Jindal.
Next summer tops the summer of 2011 and Texas burns…again.
More people realize that climate change is real and yet some Republicans bury their heads even deeper in the sand and continue the "there is evidence both ways" BS which is going to make the world so much worse for our grandkids.
